Books on prediction

List of books on the science of prediction

Useless Arithmetic: Why environmental scientists can't predict the future, by Orrin H. Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis (2007). A book about how mathematical models are used, often inappropriately, to make predictions in the environmental sciences. In an interview, the authors say "The problem is not the math itself, but the blind acceptance and even idolatry we have applied to the quantitative models."

The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions, by William A. Sherden (1999). Takes a revealing look at how people make money from selling predictions, and how accuracy is of secondary importance.

The (mis)Behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin And Reward, by mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot and journalist Richard L. Hudson (2004). Applies the tools of fractal mathematics to the marketplace.

State of Fear, a techno-thriller by Michael Crichton (2004). Includes an appendix which presents a contrarian position on climate change. Climate scientists took turns ripping it to shreds, but it raised a lot of good points. In the end, though, I agree more with the introduction to his 2002 thriller Prey, written before he got into climate research: "The fact that the biosphere responds unpredictably to our actions is not an argument for inaction. It is, however, a powerful argument for caution, and for adopting a tentative attitude toward all we believe, and all we do."

The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth, by Tim Flannery (2006). A powerful book, but at its best when talking about the effect of climate change on fragile ecosystems. The section on "The Science of Prediction" is preaching to the converted and will convince few skeptics.

The Revenge of Gaia: Earth's Climate Crisis and the Fate of Humanity, by James Lovelock (2006). Another great book by the founder of Gaia theory. In many places it seems to assume that the Earth system is predictable using models - but if the Earth is alive, surely that makes it rather hard to predict? As he writes, "the real world is far more subtle and unpredictable than any of us think."

Making Sense of Life: Explaining Biological Development with Models, Metaphors, and Machines, by biologist/science historian Evelyn Fox Keller (2002). A thought-provoking study of how living organisms have been modelled by scientists.

The Delphic Boat: What Genomes Tell Us , by biologist Antoine Danchin (2002) from the Pasteur Institute in France. Argues that the phenotype cannot be predicted from the genotype using models. "The truth of the model is not the truth of the phenomenon. It is a common confusion between these two kinds of truth - the norm in magic - that sometimes sanctifies the model (which is regarded as part of the real world) and gives the scientist the role of priest."

The Sleepwalkers: A History of Man's Changing Vision of the Universe, by novelist/journalist/philosopher Arthur Koestler (1968). Takes a critical look at the history of science, including the development of early predictive models of the cosmos. Famous quote: "Innovation is a twofold threat to academic mediocrities: it endangers their oracular authority, and it evokes the deeper fear that their whole, laboriously constructed intellectual edifice might collapse."

Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature, edited by Daniel Sarewitz, Roger A. Pielke, and Radford Byerly. A collection of case studies aimed at policy makers and environmental scientists.

The Pursuit of Destiny: A History of Prediction, by physicist Paul Halpern (2000) gives an overall history of prediction, with an emphasis on the physical sciences.

The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization, by Thomas Homer-Dixon (2006). Discusses the fault-lines developing in the global social and economic system, and argues that we need to cultivate a "prospective mind" that is "proactive, anticipatory, comfortable with change, and not surprised by surprise."

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Useless Arithmetic: Why environmental scientists can't predict the future, by Orrin H. Pilkey and Linda Pilkey-Jarvis (2007). A book about how mathematical models are used, often inappropriately, to make predictions in the environmental sciences. In an interview, the authors say "The problem is not the math itself, but the blind acceptance and even idolatry we have applied to the quantitative models."
The Fortune Sellers: The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predictions, by William A. Sherden (1999). Takes a revealing look at how people make money from selling predictions, and how accuracy is of secondary importance.
The (mis)Behavior of Markets: A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin And Reward, by mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot and journalist Richard L. Hudson (2004). Applies the tools of fractal mathematics to the marketplace.
State of Fear, a techno-thriller by Michael Crichton (2004). Includes an appendix which presents a contrarian position on climate change. Climate scientists took turns ripping it to shreds, but it raised a lot of good points. In the end, though, I agree more with the introduction to his 2002 thriller Prey, written before he got into climate research: "The fact that the biosphere responds unpredictably to our actions is not an argument for inaction. It is, however, a powerful argument for caution, and for adopting a tentative attitude toward all we believe, and all we do."
The Weather Makers: How Man Is Changing the Climate and What It Means for Life on Earth, by Tim Flannery (2006). A powerful book, but at its best when talking about the effect of climate change on fragile ecosystems. The section on "The Science of Prediction" is preaching to the converted and will convince few skeptics.
The Revenge of Gaia: Earth's Climate Crisis and the Fate of Humanity, by James Lovelock (2006). Another great book by the founder of Gaia theory. In many places it seems to assume that the Earth system is predictable using models - but if the Earth is alive, surely that makes it rather hard to predict? As he writes, "the real world is far more subtle and unpredictable than any of us think."
Making Sense of Life: Explaining Biological Development with Models, Metaphors, and Machines, by biologist/science historian Evelyn Fox Keller (2002). A thought-provoking study of how living organisms have been modelled by scientists.
The Delphic Boat: What Genomes Tell Us , by biologist Antoine Danchin (2002) from the Pasteur Institute in France. Argues that the phenotype cannot be predicted from the genotype using models. "The truth of the model is not the truth of the phenomenon. It is a common confusion between these two kinds of truth - the norm in magic - that sometimes sanctifies the model (which is regarded as part of the real world) and gives the scientist the role of priest."
The Sleepwalkers: A History of Man's Changing Vision of the Universe, by novelist/journalist/philosopher Arthur Koestler (1968). Takes a critical look at the history of science, including the development of early predictive models of the cosmos. Famous quote: "Innovation is a twofold threat to academic mediocrities: it endangers their oracular authority, and it evokes the deeper fear that their whole, laboriously constructed intellectual edifice might collapse."
Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature, edited by Daniel Sarewitz, Roger A. Pielke, and Radford Byerly. A collection of case studies aimed at policy makers and environmental scientists.
The Pursuit of Destiny: A History of Prediction, by physicist Paul Halpern (2000) gives an overall history of prediction, with an emphasis on the physical sciences.
The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity, and the Renewal of Civilization, by Thomas Homer-Dixon (2006). Discusses the fault-lines developing in the global social and economic system, and argues that we need to cultivate a "prospective mind" that is "proactive, anticipatory, comfortable with change, and not surprised by surprise."